EDITORIAL NOTE First 11th-edition data is live — the ELO ladder reset with it ›
EDITORIAL NOTE

First 11th-edition data is here — and the ELO ladder resets with it, every player back to a clean slate. The opening tournament results are in and the Strength Index is beginning to take shape across its signals, but a new edition takes time to read: expect weeks, likely months, before the numbers can support real conclusions. An early signal, not a verdict.

COVERAGE THROUGH 2026-07-02  AWAITING
EVENTS 25 · 2026-W26
GAMES 3040
WHERE THE FOUR SIGNALS AGREE AND DISAGREE

WHERE EACH SIGNAL RANKS EACH FACTION

TIE-AWARE COMPETITION RANKING · SPREAD = MAX RANK − MIN RANK
FACTION T-RANK P-RANK R-RANK A-RANK SPREAD
T’au Empire — 21 1 27 26
Death Guard — 27 12 2 25
Dark Angels — 26 14 4 22
Black Templars — 4 22 1 21
Chaos Knights — 28 7 25 21
Deathwatch — 23 24 5 19
Adeptus Mechanicus — 23 20 5 18
Space Marines — 20 2 10 18
Astra Militarum — 22 5 10 17
Chaos Space Marines — 5 6 22 17
Space Wolves — 18 25 8 17
Chaos Daemons — 8 10 24 16
Drukhari — 6 21 20 15
Leagues of Votann — 10 17 23 13
Orks — 1 14 13 13
Tyranids — 7 4 17 13
Emperor’s Children — 2 7 13 11
Genestealer Cults — 16 26 26 10
World Eaters — 17 26 16 10
Blood Angels — 10 9 18 9
Adeptus Custodes — 14 12 8 6
Imperial Knights — 15 18 21 6
Adepta Sororitas — 10 10 5 5
Aeldari — 19 23 18 5
Grey Knights — 13 18 13 5
Imperial Agents — 23 28 28 5
Necrons — 9 14 10 5
Thousand Sons — 3 2 2 1

Bigger spread — more disagreement between signals about that faction. The biggest spreads at the top are where the editorial questions live.

WHERE THE SIGNALS DISAGREE

THEORY vs PERFORMANCE · RANK DIFFERENCE
Activates once both Theory and Performance have data.

COMPOSITE TIER PREVIEW

FOUR-SIGNAL Z-SCORE WEIGHTED · TOP / BOTTOM 5
weights 25/40/25/10 · T / P / Pr / A
1
Thousand Sons
 
+1.32
2
Orks
 
+1.22
3
Emperor’s Children
 
+1.16
4
Chaos Space Marines
 
+0.91
5
Tyranids
 
+0.74
BOTTOM
—
Imperial Agents
 
-1.76
—
Chaos Knights
 
-0.96
—
Deathwatch
 
-0.91
—
Genestealer Cults
 
-0.83
—
Death Guard
 
-0.67
OPEN STRENGTH INDEX ›

WEEK-OVER-WEEK MOVEMENT

PERFORMANCE PULL · WR DELTA
2026-W25 → 2026-W26 · threshold ≥ 2pt
↑
Emperor’s Children
60.4%
+22.9pt
↑
Orks
63.5%
+21.9pt
↑
Necrons
50.3%
+20.5pt
DOWN
↓
Imperial Agents
40%
-40pt
↓
Space Wolves
46%
-24pt
↓
Deathwatch
40%
-22.5pt
HOW TO READ QUANTUM

Quantum is the Archive’s measurement layer — what the data says about the game, before anyone interprets it.

The four signals — Theory (what a faction can do on paper), Performance (what it has done at events), Practice (what top players rate it), and Attention (what the community watches) — shown at illustrative strengths, converging into the Composite tier index.
  • Theory (the Datasheet Analysis tab) — what a faction can do on paper (datasheet strength, matched-play filtered).
  • Performance (this tab) — what it has actually done at tournaments (aggregated event win rates).
  • Practice (surfaces on the Tier List) — what top players rate it (curated tier-list verdicts).
  • Attention (the Signals tab’s A-RANK column) — what the community is watching (search and video engagement).

The dashboard measures — that is the Archivist. Interpretation lives on Awakenings — that is the Editor. Weigh them as separate acts. When the four signals agree on a faction, that’s a confident read; when they disagree, the disagreement is the editorial product, not a bug.

  • Results — tournament outcomes; win-rate cells carry a Wilson 95% CI bar (wider band = smaller sample, less certainty).
  • Signals — cross-signal comparison: where the four measurements agree and disagree.
  • Datasheet Analysis — paper strength: the matched-play unit ceiling. Panel archetypes are defined in the Glossary.
  • ELO — player ratings in three variants (raw, theory-adjusted, performance-adjusted).
  • Tier List ↗ — the headline four-signal verdict, at its own page: the Strength Index.
VITAL SIGNS · COLUMN REFRESH STATUS
THEORY
2026-05-29
FRESH · 37D AGO
PERFORMANCE
2026-06-03
STALE · 32D AGO
PRACTICE
2026-06-27
FRESH · 8D AGO
ATTENTION
2026-06-21
AGING · 14D AGO
DIGEST
2026-07-02
FRESH · 3D AGO
TOP WIN RATE
61.1% Orks
z +1.9 · CI [54.8–67.1]
STEEPEST CLIMB
+22.9pp Emperor’s Children
w/w · Orks +21.9
SHARPEST DROP
-40pp Imperial Agents
w/w · Space Wolves -24
LATE-GAME LEADER
+35.2pp Grey Knights
round Δ · climbs late
HIDDEN GEM
Black Templars 55.7%
N=75 · 1.3% field share
SHARPEST SPLIT
Cross-source ranks unavailable this week

FACTION PERFORMANCE

28 FACTIONS · 3040 GAMES · WILSON 95% CI · 2026-W26
SEE ALL THE DATA › SEE ALL THE ANALYSIS ›
STAT:
# FACTION WIN RATE · 95% CI Δ W/W N Z
1 Orks
61.1% [54.8–67.1]
+21.9 275 +1.9
2 Emperor’s Children
60% [52.7–66.9]
+22.9 189 +1.72
3 Thousand Sons
59.7% [53.8–65.4]
-17.6 294 +1.68
4 Black Templars
55.7% [44.1–66.8]
-2.5 75 +1.03
5 Necrons
55.5% [50.5–60.4]
+20.5 422 +1
6 Grey Knights
54.9% [45.2–64.2]
-6.3 106 +0.9
7 Chaos Daemons
53.7% [47.1–60.2]
-7.8 237 +0.71
8 Chaos Space Marines
52.6% [46.4–58.8]
· 269 +0.54
9 Blood Angels
52.2% [43.8–60.5]
-5.6 142 +0.48
10 T’au Empire
51.7% [46.7–56.6]
-7.9 437 +0.38
11 Dark Angels
51.1% [42.9–59.3]
-14.7 156 +0.29
12 Leagues of Votann
50.3% [42.4–58.2]
-20 169 +0.17
13 Imperial Knights
50.2% [44.4–56]
· 310 +0.15
14 Imperial Agents
50% [28–72]
-40 20 +0.12
# FACTION WIN RATE · 95% CI Δ W/W N Z
15 Space Wolves
49.6% [40.9–58.3]
-24 131 +0.05
16 Space Marines
49.5% [44.4–54.6]
· 393 +0.03
17 Tyranids
48.7% [43.6–53.9]
-6.5 392 -0.08
18 Adepta Sororitas
48.7% [39.7–57.8]
· 120 -0.09
19 Deathwatch
48.2% [30.7–66]
-22.5 30 -0.18
20 Adeptus Custodes
44.3% [38.6–50.1]
-5.1 314 -0.8
21 Adeptus Mechanicus
44.2% [33.6–55.3]
-5.8 87 -0.82
22 Death Guard
44.1% [37.7–50.7]
+7 250 -0.83
23 Genestealer Cults
43.3% [33.9–53.2]
· 111 -0.96
24 Drukhari
42.2% [34.2–50.7]
+2.7 159 -1.13
25 World Eaters
41.3% [34.7–48.3]
+10.2 210 -1.27
26 Aeldari
41.1% [34.1–48.6]
-14.4 187 -1.3
27 Chaos Knights
37.8% [30.2–45.9]
+3.7 164 -1.84
28 Astra Militarum
37.6% [31.6–44.1]
-6.5 246 -1.87

MATCHUP MATRIX

TOP 12 BY WR · ROW WR vs COLUMN · 2026-W26
FULL 28×28 MATRIX ›
ORKS
EMPER
THOUS
BLACK
NECRO
GREY
CHAOS
CHAOS
BLOOD
T’AU
DARK
LEAGU
ORKS
45
72
50
50
33
50
36
50
57
50
50
EMPER
45
40
·
41
50
38
57
67
58
63
67
THOUS
28
50
75
44
100
78
69
50
42
50
71
BLACK
50
·
0
100
0
100
0
0
0
·
·
NECRO
38
55
48
0
38
50
67
30
58
78
42
GREY
67
50
0
100
50
50
50
100
43
80
33
CHAOS
29
63
22
0
41
38
83
50
40
60
33
CHAOS
57
29
25
67
29
50
17
25
38
43
33
BLOOD
50
33
50
100
60
0
50
63
50
0
17
T’AU
33
42
45
75
34
57
55
48
50
40
60
DARK
20
38
0
·
22
20
20
43
100
60
60
LEAGU
33
17
29
·
58
67
67
47
83
27
40

COVERAGE

RECENT THIRD-PARTY WRITEUPS · THROUGH 2026-07-02
ALL COVERAGE ›
2026-07-02 VIDEO

Best Armies to START 11th Edition with!

40K Fireside · 40K Fireside

2026-07-01 VIDEO

The First Meta and Stats for 11th Edition Warhammer 40k

Art of War 40k · Art of War 40k

2026-07-01 VIDEO

NEW 11th Edition MFM Battle Report Chaos Knights vs Imperial Knights

Art of War 40k · Art of War 40k

2026-06-30 VIDEO

🔥Team Sweden REACTION to 11th Edition Warhammer - Favorite Rule and Nerfed Unit - Part 1🔥

Veizla · Veizla

UNIT-CEILING SIGNAL · STRENGTH INDEX

THEORY HIGHLIGHTS

MATCHED-PLAY UNIT CEILING · TOP / BOTTOM
Awaiting theory data.

STRENGTH INDEX BUCKETS

EVERY FACTION · STRONGER / AVERAGE / WEAKER
STRONGER n=5
1 Thousand Sons +1.32
2 Orks +1.22
3 Emperor’s Children +1.16
4 Chaos Space Marines +0.91
5 Tyranids +0.74
AVERAGE n=14
6 Drukhari +0.48
7 Black Templars +0.44
8 Adepta Sororitas +0.34
9 Chaos Daemons +0.34
10 Blood Angels +0.31
11 Necrons +0.24
12 Space Marines +0.23
13 Leagues of Votann +0.09
14 Adeptus Custodes +0.08
15 Grey Knights +0.07
16 T’au Empire +0.07
17 Astra Militarum +0.03
18 Imperial Knights -0.1
19 Aeldari -0.49
WEAKER n=9
20 Dark Angels -0.54
21 Space Wolves -0.58
22 World Eaters -0.59
23 Adeptus Mechanicus -0.61
24 Death Guard -0.67
25 Genestealer Cults -0.83
26 Deathwatch -0.91
27 Chaos Knights -0.96
28 Imperial Agents -1.76
OPEN STRENGTH INDEX ›

FACTION SIGNAL BREAKDOWN

PICK A FACTION · SEE ITS FOUR Z-SCORES
THE THEORY DATASET · BY THE NUMBERS
FACTIONS
28
catalogued
UNITS
1003
1291 entries
ENHANCEMENTS
778
at current version
RELEASES TRACKED
1
34 articles · 138 videos coverage
THREE-ELO RATING SYSTEM · PROVISIONAL
The ELO surface activates once _data/elo/ ships its first pull. The engine is built (see scripts/elo_update.py) and the verify gate is green.