The live metagame dashboard — the week’s signals, synthesised.
First-party weekly aggregation across every BCP event of 5+ rounds — faction win rates, matchup matrix, deep-run rates, week-over-week movement.
| FACTION | GAMES | TOP 3% | REAL WR ↓ | BLOWOUT % | CLOSE % | TOP-CUT SHARE | OVER-REP | MIRROR MARGIN | ROUND Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adepta Sororitas | 144 | 9.5% |
48.6%
|
17.5% | 18.9% | 2.5% | 0.99 | — | -35.7% |
| Adeptus Custodes | 237 | 4.2% |
46.7%
|
12.5% | 18.5% | 1.3% | 0.3 | 27.3 | +23.8% |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 131 | 11.1% |
44.6%
|
11.5% | 22.3% | 2.5% | 1.09 | — | +51.9% |
| Aeldari | 117 | 14.3% |
41.2%
|
11.2% | 21.6% | 2.5% | 1.22 | — | -33.3% |
| Astra Militarum | 260 | 12.5% |
48%
|
13.5% | 23.4% | 3.8% | 0.84 | 24 | +22.9% |
| Black Templars | 83 | 0% |
48.2%
|
16.9% | 15.7% | 0% | 0 | — | -10.6% |
| Blood Angels | 167 | 11.1% |
40.3%
|
9.8% | 21.5% | 2.5% | 0.87 | 34 | -32.9% |
| Chaos Daemons | 177 | 15.8% |
50.3%
|
10.8% | 19.9% | 3.8% | 1.21 | — | -8.8% |
| Chaos Knights | 161 | 14.3% |
47.1%
|
12.6% | 20.1% | 2.5% | 0.89 | 30.5 | -24.5% |
| Chaos Space Marines | 442 | 59.3% |
60.4%
|
22.4% | 19.6% | 20.3% | 2.65 | 22.6 | -1.6% |
| Dark Angels | 226 | 5% |
49.5%
|
13.2% | 20.1% | 1.3% | 0.32 | 23.3 | -20.4% |
| Death Guard | 339 | 26.9% |
50.9%
|
12.6% | 19.2% | 8.9% | 1.49 | 35.8 | +8.1% |
| Deathwatch | 90 | 7.7% |
56.7%
|
22.2% | 14.4% | 1.3% | 0.79 | — | +7.4% |
| Drukhari | 177 | 15.8% |
52.9%
|
16.7% | 19% | 3.8% | 1.22 | 22.7 | +20.1% |
| Emperor’s Children | 282 | 17.4% |
52%
|
18.3% | 16.5% | 5.1% | 1.02 | 45.7 | -3.3% |
| Genestealer Cults | 47 | 0% |
56.5%
|
12.8% | 25.5% | 0% | 0 | — | -50% |
| Grey Knights | 108 | 0% |
45.4%
|
9.3% | 26.9% | 0% | 0 | — | -5% |
| Imperial Agents | 31 | 20% |
56.7%
|
9.7% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 2.29 | — | -40% |
| Imperial Knights | 244 | 14.3% |
45.5%
|
10.9% | 20.6% | 3.8% | 0.89 | 37.2 | -13.1% |
| Leagues of Votann | 148 | 12.5% |
51.7%
|
13.6% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 0.97 | — | +37.1% |
| Necrons | 357 | 18.5% |
54.1%
|
15.5% | 25% | 6.3% | 1.02 | 17.3 | +4.2% |
| Orks | 180 | 5% |
53.9%
|
21% | 25.6% | 1.3% | 0.4 | 47 | -26.2% |
| Space Marines | 382 | 8% |
42.1%
|
11.1% | 22% | 2.5% | 0.38 | 30.2 | +13.8% |
| Space Wolves | 144 | 6.3% |
39.2%
|
11.2% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 0.5 | — | +10.1% |
| T’au Empire | 358 | 20% |
55.8%
|
21% | 17.9% | 6.3% | 1.01 | 26.3 | -5.9% |
| Thousand Sons | 230 | 23.8% |
48%
|
17.2% | 22.9% | 6.3% | 1.56 | 31.3 | +45.4% |
| Tyranids | 270 | 16.7% |
51.7%
|
14.8% | 22.8% | 5.1% | 1.08 | 19.7 | -17.2% |
| World Eaters | 180 | 4.8% |
50.6%
|
19.1% | 20.2% | 1.3% | 0.4 | 36 | -1.3% |
| # | FACTION | TIER | SCORE | SRC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading aggregated tier list… | ||||
| # | PLAYER | RAW ↓ | THEORY-ADJ | PERF-ADJ | T-PREMIUM | P-PREMIUM | G | RECENT FACTIONS |
|---|
Reported faction win rates carry uncertainty that scales with sample size. A 56% rate over 200 games has a 95% CI of roughly 49% – 63%. The same rate over 2,000 games tightens to 54% – 58%.
When two sources disagree by 2 – 3 points, the disagreement often sits inside the noise.
OPEN THE CI EXPLORER ›What released, what changed, what the cross-source data is saying — and what it isn’t. One issue a week, six-minute read.
READ THIS WEEK ›Dual-captain entry — three rejection-engineering gambits, a captain-as-bait defender call, and a multi-logic robustness signal that lands a new methodology observation.
OPEN ENTRY ›We measure the metagame from the outside in. Not who is winning — we link to the people who track that. What we offer: methodology, history, and signal you will not find on any aggregator.
READ THE MANIFESTO ›