MATRIX CAPTAIN DECISION ARCHIVE

CAPTAIN DECISION ARCHIVE

High-stakes pairing calls from major team events, recorded with their information state, counterfactual analysis, and outcome. The decisions are interesting; the captains are not on trial. Every entry is reviewed for fairness before publication.
5 LIVE ENTRIES · 1 PLANNED
Filters reactivate when the catalogue accumulates across multiple events.

CHTT 2026 · THE FIVE-ROUND ARC

5 LIVE ENTRIES · PUBLISHED MAY 2026
A complete pairings-craft arc from one event, one captain’s seat. Riley Tremblay captained Blunt Force Trauma’s pairings across the five rounds of the 2026 Canhammer Team Tournament. Each round’s entry is a standalone walkthrough — pre-round matrix, the pairing dance push by push, a backward-induction solver comparison, the result, and the captain’s lessons — and together they read as a connected arc: the table miss in Round 1 cashed in Round 2; the soft spot flagged in Round 2 resolved in Round 3; the captain’s sacrifice in Round 4 that originates the Day 2 gear-switch Round 5 refers to. Round 5 is the only dual-captain entry (sourced from both team captains) and carries the Editor disclosure.
CHTT · ROUND 1MAY 2026
The Table They Missed
8-PLAYER WTC-STYLE · SINGLE-CAPTAIN ENTRY
The Custodes pin worked — the table inside it didn’t. BFT got the matchups it wanted and drew the round two points short of a win, because one table layout inside one correctly-pinned pairing went unrated.
table pick unmodelled variable value of a coach
BFT DREW 84–76 · PAIRING WORKED, ROUND DIDN’T
CHTT · ROUND 2MAY 2026
The Table They Took
8-PLAYER WTC-STYLE · SINGLE-CAPTAIN ENTRY
Round 1’s lesson cashed. Same player who lost to an unrated table now wins on a chosen one — Jag’s flat-0 matchup into Death Guard finishes 17–3 on the optimal board. +46 aggregate.
lesson applied threat extraction captain override
BFT WON 103–57 · STATEMENT WIN
CHTT · ROUND 3MAY 2026
The Robbery
DAY 1 FINAL · SINGLE-CAPTAIN ENTRY
Two pairing “blunders” both produce near-max wins — a roster with seven positive matchups absorbs the dance. The EC/DW/GSC soft spot the Round 2 entry flagged finally resolves.
roster depth blunders absorbed soft-spot resolved
BFT WON 135–25 · LARGEST RESULT OF THE RUN
CHTT · ROUND 4MAY 2026
The Captain’s Sacrifice
DAY 2 OPENER · SINGLE-CAPTAIN ENTRY
A pairings captain deliberately routes himself into the team’s hardest remaining matchup, giving up a +2 cell and any claim on top-scorer because the unit of victory has changed. The Day 2 gear-switch the Round 5 entry refers to originates here.
captain’s sacrifice Day 2 gear-switch table denial
BFT WON 105–55 · ADVANCE TO FINAL
CHTT · ROUND 5 (FINAL)MAY 2026
The Blunt Force Gambit
8-PLAYER WTC-STYLE · DUAL-CAPTAIN ENTRY
The Archive’s first dual-captain entry, sourced from both Riley Tremblay (BFT) and Nick (RLD). Three rejection-engineering plays, a captain-as-bait defender call, and an RLD non-matrix championship that called a BFT gambit for reasons the gambit didn’t account for.
dual-captain rejection gambit matrix recalibration
BFT WON 93–67 · CAPTAIN CRAFT MIXED
PLANNED ENTRYINTAKE PENDING
Edmonton / Trinity Hobbies Event
TBD · LATE MAY 2026
Riley flagged the upcoming Edmonton / Trinity Hobbies team event as fresh material for a follow-up entry. Captain-side intake will run after the event.
team event coming soon
INTAKE PENDING

LESSONS · CROSS-ENTRY PATTERNS

THREE THREADS · ONE EVENT · ONE CAPTAIN
THE TABLE THREAD
Table layout is a captain-craft variable, and the matrix doesn’t price it

A four-round arc. Missed in Round 1 (the Custodes “Super L” layout flipped a predicted +1 into a 2–18). Taken in Round 2 (Jag handed the optimal board against Death Guard, a flat-0 cell finished 17–3). Fumbled by the opponent in Round 3 (BDE picked the wrong heavy table for the TSons mirror). Denied in Round 4 (BFT won the roll-off and pulled Table 7 from TH’s top scorer). The variable that costs the round in entry one becomes a captain’s lens by entry four.

Trail: R1R2R3R4
THE SOFT-SPOT THREAD
A captain naming a roster weakness and resolving it across rounds

EC, Deathwatch, and GSC struggled in Rounds 1 and 2 — Riley closed the Round 2 intake saying he wanted “to get them something better next round.” Round 3 is that round: François 20–0 into CSM, Kas 13–7 into EC, Stu 20–0 into the Recon Guard the GSC list was built to pin. Multi-round team management as captain craft, not just single-round pairing.

Trail: R1R2R3 (resolved)
THE COORDINATION THREAD
Pairings authority works as singular — with absence, it fails one way; with overcrowding, it fails the other

The Round 1 entry names “the value of a coach” — the missing role that would have coordinated three games losing on variance into the smaller-loss plays the team result wanted. The Round 5 entry names the inverse failure on the opposing team: “too many cooks in the kitchen,” a coach plus two co-captains producing a confused process. Same variable, two failure modes, two rounds. Round 4’s Captain’s Sacrifice sits in this thread as the positive demonstration — a single captain seeing the round-vs-game distinction and acting on it.

Trail: R1 (absence) ↔ R5 (overcrowding) · R4 (the unit of victory)

These three threads are the catalogue’s current shape. The patterns are drawn from the round drafts’ explicit cross-references — no invented statistics, no “captains who X win N% of rounds.” The pattern surface will widen as the Archive accumulates entries from other captains, events, and formats.