EDITORIAL NOTE First 11th-edition data is live — the ELO ladder reset with it ›
EDITORIAL NOTE

First 11th-edition data is here — and the ELO ladder resets with it, every player back to a clean slate. The opening tournament results are in and the Strength Index is beginning to take shape across its signals, but a new edition takes time to read: expect weeks, likely months, before the numbers can support real conclusions. An early signal, not a verdict.

TOOLS › PAIRINGS TOOL

PAIRINGS TOOL

Compute the blind-written ceiling for an 8v8 (WTC) or 5v5 (regional and team-open) round — the best total rating one captain could reach if they placed all the pairings themselves, in one shot, with no opponent response. Each cell is a captain's read of a matchup on the five-point scale (−2 to +2) used in WTC prep. The tool finds the assignment-optimal pairing, compares it to alternatives, and tells you how robust the call is to your matchup estimates being off.
This is an upper bound, not a WTC simulation. Real WTC pairings are set across three sequential captain pushes — secret defender, attacker pair, refusal — and no single captain controls the assignment. The ceiling computed here is rarely reachable in practice; the WTC three-push sequential solver that models the actual captain dance is the v1 work.
Need to build the roster first? The Team Disposition Planner → enforces the disposition caps, faction-keyword uniqueness, and the detachment budget before you get to the table.

TEAM A · YOUR TEAM

SELECT N LISTS

MATCHUP MATRIX

CAPTAIN'S READ · WTC-STYLE RATING · ★ = CEILING ASSIGNMENT
WINDOW FIRST-PARTY MATCHUP PULL · OPT-IN
↓ TEAM A LISTS TEAM B LISTS →
−2 VERY BAD Strong underdog — need variance to win ≈ % win
−1 BAD Underdog — uphill but playable ≈ % win
 0 EVEN Coin flip — anyone's game ≈ % win
+1 GOOD Favored — should win more often ≈ % win
+2 VERY GOOD Strong favorite — should rarely lose ≈ % win
► The −2 to +2 scale is how most captains think about matchups. The percentages above are a captain-editable mapping — your own sense of what each rating means in win-probability terms. Defaults are 30 / 40 / 50 / 60 / 70; edit any cell and the matrix's per-cell % hint and the baseline overlay both refresh against your curve. Not data-fitted — the tool does not capture outcomes to fit against.

TEAM B · OPPONENT

SELECT N LISTS

OPTIMAL ASSIGNMENT

ASSIGNMENT-OPTIMAL CEILING · BLIND-WRITTEN PROTOCOL
TOTAL MATCHUP RATING
+5/ +8 MAX
Calibrated win-probability sum: 2.50 / 4 (62.5% implied team win rate).

ALTERNATIVES

NEXT BEST · NAIVE · WORST

SENSITIVITY

HOW ROBUST IS THE CALL
SMALLEST FLIP
±1RATING STEP
A single matchup re-rated by this much flips the optimal assignment. Dashed cells are most fragile.
CLASSIFICATION
MODERATELY ROBUST
A robust call holds under reasonable mis-estimation. A brittle one flips on a small rating change.

PAIRING PROTOCOL — WHAT THIS MODE COMPUTES

EXPLAINER · TOGGLE LIVES IN THE TOOLBAR
Blind / Ceiling: the assignment-optimal upper bound — the best total rating one captain could reach if they placed all the pairings themselves, in one shot, with no opponent response. This is the right answer under a true blind-written protocol; under any other protocol, the ceiling is rarely reachable. Hungarian-style optimization against your stated ratings.
► WTC Sequential models the three-push captain dance that real WTC rounds use — secret defender, attacker pair, refusal, repeated three times. 8v8 only. The reading flips: instead of a single best assignment, the tool recommends a Push-1 defender and reports each defender's worst-case round value (RowMin).

PRESETS

FROM THE DECISION ARCHIVE

SAVED MATRICES

LOCAL TO THIS BROWSER · localStorage
DECISION AID · NOT DECISION

This tool surfaces what your matchup ratings imply. If your reads are noisy — and pre-event matchup estimates almost always are — the optimal assignment is noisy too. Always read the sensitivity readout. A brittle "optimal" that flips on a single rating step is barely an optimal at all; in real play, a captain with good intuition for the opposing player's style or an information edge will outperform a captain who blindly trusts a math-optimal pairing built on shaky inputs. Use this tool to surface and stress-test your reasoning, not to replace it.