Week 27: The First Full Read of Eleventh Edition
The first week the whole pipeline ran clean — 10 Grand Tournaments, 1,123 games. A 28-faction win-rate table and a scoring-posture matrix, read as signal, not verdict.
Week 27 is the first competitive week where the whole pipeline ran clean: 10 five-plus-round singles Grand Tournaments, 1,123 games, curated from first-party tournament data. It is still early. Most factions are nowhere near the sample where a single week means much, so read everything below as signal, not verdict — the confidence intervals on Quantum are wide for a reason, and the numbers here will move.
Rows marked · have fewer than 80 games (n) — treat their win rate as a rumor, not a reading.
Faction win rate — Week 27
| # | Faction | Win rate | n | Top-3 | VP diff | Field share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imperial Agents · | 60.0% | 5 | — | +13.2 | 0.2% |
| 2 | Emperor’s Children | 59.3% | 93 | 43% | +5.5 | 4.3% |
| 3 | Adeptus Mechanicus · | 57.4% | 63 | — | +0.3 | 2.9% |
| 4 | Death Guard · | 56.0% | 79 | 13% | −5.3 | 3.6% |
| 5 | Orks | 55.8% | 97 | 10% | +9.4 | 4.5% |
| 6 | Necrons | 55.3% | 170 | 30% | +3.0 | 7.8% |
| 7 | Grey Knights · | 54.9% | 51 | 14% | +2.2 | 2.4% |
| 8 | Thousand Sons | 54.0% | 113 | 22% | +3.5 | 5.2% |
| 9 | Adeptus Custodes | 53.7% | 126 | 13% | +2.3 | 5.8% |
| 10 | T’au Empire | 52.9% | 120 | 25% | +2.8 | 5.5% |
| 11 | Space Marines | 52.8% | 146 | 63% | −1.1 | 6.7% |
| 12 | Adepta Sororitas · | 52.3% | 46 | — | +3.7 | 2.1% |
| 13 | Leagues of Votann | 51.0% | 108 | — | −2.1 | 5.0% |
| 14 | Chaos Daemons · | 50.7% | 74 | 11% | +5.9 | 3.4% |
| 15 | Dark Angels · | 49.1% | 65 | 29% | −3.6 | 3.0% |
| 16 | Imperial Knights | 49.0% | 104 | 11% | +1.6 | 4.8% |
| 17 | Drukhari | 46.3% | 80 | — | −3.4 | 3.7% |
| 18 | Tyranids | 46.2% | 147 | 22% | +0.7 | 6.8% |
| 19 | Deathwatch · | 45.8% | 25 | — | +4.5 | 1.1% |
| 20 | Space Wolves | 45.8% | 85 | — | −6.1 | 3.9% |
| 21 | Chaos Knights · | 45.2% | 44 | — | −7.3 | 2.0% |
| 22 | Chaos Space Marines | 43.2% | 97 | 13% | −6.0 | 4.5% |
| 23 | Genestealer Cults · | 40.9% | 22 | — | +1.7 | 1.0% |
| 24 | Astra Militarum · | 39.2% | 55 | — | −8.1 | 2.5% |
| 25 | Blood Angels · | 38.2% | 35 | — | −6.8 | 1.6% |
| 26 | World Eaters · | 37.0% | 56 | — | −9.0 | 2.6% |
| 27 | Aeldari · | 33.3% | 45 | — | −8.0 | 2.1% |
| 28 | Black Templars · | 21.7% | 23 | — | −17.7 | 1.1% |
What’s actually readable
Strip out the thin rows and a short list of factions cleared 55% on a real sample: Emperor’s Children (59.3%, n=93) sit clearly on top, and Orks (55.8%, n=97) and Necrons (55.3%, n=170) back them up — Necrons on the deepest sample any faction posted this week. Thousand Sons, Adeptus Custodes, and T’au Empire form a solid 53–54% tier on 110+ games each.
The extremes are the least trustworthy points on the board. Imperial Agents’ 60% is five games. Black Templars’ 21.7% is twenty-three. Neither is a finding; both are what small samples look like at the edges. The honest bottom signal is Chaos Space Marines (43.2%, n=97) and Tyranids (46.2%, n=147) — the only sub-50% factions with enough games to say it with a straight face, and Tyranids’ near-flat VP differential (+0.7) suggests a faction losing close rather than getting run over.
One column worth a note: Top-3 finishes. Space Marines’ 63% doesn’t mean they’re the best faction — it means they were at nearly every event, so they had the most chances to put someone on a podium. It’s a breadth measure, not a strength one. Emperor’s Children reaching 43% on a third of the field share is the more efficient result.
Scoring posture — how the missions are playing
The disposition matrix reads posture-versus-posture, faction-agnostic — “if two armies picked these scoring stances, who tends to come out ahead?” It draws on the full edition-to-date sample (~8,400 games), so it’s steadier than the one-week faction table. Each cell is the row posture’s win rate against the column posture.
| ↓ vs → | Take and Hold | Purge the Foe | Disruption | Reconnaissance | Priority Assets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take and Hold | — | 50 | 45 | 50 | 46 |
| Purge the Foe | 45 | — | 56 | 47 | 43 |
| Disruption | 44 | 38 | — | 33 | 46 |
| Reconnaissance | 43 | 46 | 53 | — | 46 |
| Priority Assets | 47 | 52 | 47 | 48 | — |
Most of these gaps are within noise, and only a couple of cells clear the sample bar to be called readable rather than merely directional. The one posture that stands out on enough games to trust: Disruption is the stance being punished — it wins just 38% into Purge the Foe and 33% into Reconnaissance. Everything else clusters near an even 50/50, which is roughly what you’d want the mission set to look like three weeks into an edition.
Who’s showing up
Field share, most-played first: Necrons 7.8%, Tyranids 6.8%, Space Marines 6.7%, Adeptus Custodes 5.8%, T’au 5.5%, Thousand Sons 5.2%, Leagues of Votann 5.0%. Necrons carrying both the deepest sample and a top-tier win rate is the closest thing this week has to an unambiguous statement.
The caveat, restated
Three weeks of an edition is not enough to rank a faction with confidence, and this page has deliberately not tried to. The win-rate table is a snapshot with wide error bars; the disposition read is the steadier of the two only because it pools more games. What compounds into the Strength Index is the whole edition to date, not this single week — so treat W27 as one more brick, and watch whether the readable names here (Emperor’s Children, the Ork/Necron cluster) hold their sample as it grows.
The full tables, with every confidence interval drawn in, live on Quantum.
— The Editor
Data is infinite; understanding it is Divine.